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What Policing Can Learn from Moneyball’s Lessons in Data

Posted

March 20, 2025

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Data has always held the potential to revolutionize the way we think and work. We’ve seen it transform baseball through sabermetrics, and now, it’s making waves in officer wellness programs. At first glance, it might seem like these two fields couldn’t be more different, but they share a surprising connection—a data-driven shift away from relying solely on tradition toward a modern, evidence-based approach. Both illustrate how new methods can drive smarter decisions, better outcomes, and a brighter future, even if the transition isn’t always easy.

“There is an epidemic failure within the game to understand what is really happening.”
– Peter Brand

Sabermetrics and the Reinvention of Baseball

OPS vs WAR in baseball sabermetrics.
https://www.baseballdatascience.com/understanding-common-sabermetric-statistics/

For over a century, baseball was rooted in tradition. Scouts relied on gut instincts and measured players’ success through classic stats like batting average, home runs, and RBIs. Then came sabermetrics—a term coined by Bill James and popularized through Michael Lewis’s book Moneyball. Sabermetrics broke the game wide open, introducing advanced metrics like WAR (Wins Above Replacement, which evaluates a player’s total value to the team compared to a replacement-level player) and OBP (On-Base Percentage, which tracks how often a player reaches base, highlighting efficiency over tradition).

The brilliance of sabermetrics lies in its shift to outcome-based metrics. For example, instead of focusing on a batter’s traditional average, sabermetrics looks at metrics like slugging percentage (how often a player generates extra-base hits) or OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging), which provide a clearer picture of overall value. This approach is not only rooted in analytics but also asks deeper questions about what metrics truly correlate with success.

This mindset fundamentally changed how teams strategized. By prioritizing measurable outcomes—in other words, results that drive wins—sabermetrics enabled teams like the Oakland Athletics to thrive on smaller budgets by identifying undervalued talent.

Officer Wellness Goes High-Tech

Just as sabermetrics revolutionized baseball, data now provides a level of previously unavailable support. Law enforcement is an inherently demanding profession, with high rates of stress, trauma, and other risks that affect physical and mental health. Wellness strategies often rely on broad, reactive measures. General support programs and sporadic interventions often become check-the-box initiatives without real top-down support. These programs operate on the hope of “build it, and they will come,” lacking the proactivity needed to truly address the issues.

These programs also rely on the hope that an officer will willingly step forward for help. But here’s the problem—most won’t. Asking for help goes against the grain of who we are. We’re the problem solvers, the ones people turn to in times of need. Flipping that coin and being the one to ask for help feels counterintuitive. The truth is, while we’re great at solving others’ problems, we often struggle to address our own.

Today, innovative companies are applying the same data-driven principles that sabermetrics introduced to baseball. Benchmark’s approach to officer wellness goes beyond traditional early warning systems typically confined to internal affairs. By analyzing over 70 million data points, we identify officers at risk and proactively intervene before issues escalate, focusing on wellness and support rather than reactive discipline. For instance, the solution proactively identifies individuals in need and offers personalized wellness plans tailored to support mental health, physical health, social connections, financial resilience, and professional growth.

This holistic strategy parallels how sabermetrics evaluates multiple dimensions of a player’s impact rather than relying on surface-level stats. Just as baseball analytics digs deep into a player’s performance, Benchmark’s First Sign® Precision Wellness program assesses a variety of factors to improve outcomes.

These data-derived insights prove to be an amazing tool as they provide a clear focal point amidst the noise of our busy world. With so much information and varying opinions vying for attention, data offers the ability to pinpoint areas that truly need focus and improvement. It eliminates conjecture and helps guide decisions based on evidence rather than assumption. Jeff Bezos captured this sentiment perfectly when he said, “You have to seek truth even when it’s uncomfortable.” This mindset underpins the importance of using data to drive meaningful change and create impactful solutions, whether in wellness programs, business strategies, or beyond.

Comparative Overview: Sabermetrics vs. Officer Wellness

To further illustrate the parallels, here is a detailed comparison of how sabermetrics in baseball aligns with data-driven officer wellness initiatives:

Data-Driven Decision Making

Uses advanced statistics to evaluate player performance and make informed decisions about strategy and team composition.

Leverages over 70 million data points and advanced data science to identify officers in need, assess risks, and tailor wellness plans.

Holistic Evaluation

Goes beyond traditional stats like batting averages to include advanced metrics like WAR and OPS for a comprehensive view of a player’s value.

Focuses on all pillars of wellness to include mental health, physical health, social connections, financial literacy, and professional well-being for holistic wellness.

Proactive Interventions

Helps teams anticipate future performance and make proactive roster changes.

Identifies officers at risk and delivers proactive, research-based interventions such as curated wellness plans and peer counseling.

Customization and Context

Adapts metrics to the specific needs of teams and players, taking into account factors like ballpark dynamics and league trends.

Tailors wellness solutions to local data, agency conditions, and state policies for greater effectiveness and relevance.

Research and Evidence-Based Practices

Rooted in rigorous statistical analyses and research to validate performance metrics.

Built on research partnerships with academic institutions and proven interventions to ensure effectiveness and scalability.

 

 

 

The Risk Factor: Why Wellness Matters More Than Ever

One of the strongest parallels between sabermetrics and officer wellness lies in their shared impact on minimizing risk. Ignoring the right metrics in either case doesn’t just hinder performance; it invites significant repercussions.

For law enforcement agencies, a lack of attention to wellness directly threatens their ability to fulfill their core mission – serving and protecting. High rates of wellness issues, such as stress and trauma, often lead to increased absenteeism and early resignations. When departments face these challenges, shifts are understaffed, and response times to calls can suffer. This creates a dangerous feedback loop where increased workloads amplify burnout, driving even more officers to leave and exacerbating recruitment challenges.

Compounding this is the operational risk associated with less experienced recruits. To replace departing personnel, agencies must rapidly onboard new officers, who, without significant tenure, may be more prone to mistakes. These operational errors increase liability and can tarnish an agency’s reputation. Even for departments that appear to manage superficially without wellness issues, this fragile balance can quickly spiral into bigger problems when wellness concerns emerge.

Addressing officer wellness proactively serves as both a protective strategy and a cultural transformation. Departments that prioritize wellness initiatives across all pillars equip their officers with the tools to endure and recover from traumatic experiences. While no agency can eliminate the stressors and risks inherent in policing, investing in resources like mental health support, peer counseling, and practical wellness training can dramatically shift an agency’s internal culture.

When officers feel valued and supported, it strengthens their connection to the department. This cultural resonance also extends outward, influencing public perception and enhancing recruitment efforts. Agencies with positive wellness cultures not only retain officers longer but also benefit from the maturity and decision-making that come with experience. Fewer mistakes, better interactions with the public, and lower liability all contribute to a robust risk management strategy.

Beyond operational metrics, the moral dimension of officer wellness stands out. Supporting your team isn’t just about functional efficiency; it’s about doing what’s right. Officers should leave their careers healthy, not broken. We put immense effort into maintaining our equipment, facilities,  and vehicles to prevent failures—why wouldn’t we invest that same level of care into our most valuable asset, our people?

Ultimately, success in law enforcement is multifaceted. Ensuring the well-being of officers means better outcomes for the individuals, the agency, and the community they serve. It’s a commitment to safeguarding not only the mission but also the people entrusted to carry it out.

The Challenge of Change

Adopting any new system comes with a learning curve, and the shift to a data-driven approach isn’t without its challenges. Sabermetrics faced resistance when it first entered baseball. For many players, coaches, and even fans, it felt like a departure from the emotion and tradition they loved about the game. Could an algorithm really quantify heart and grit?

Similar concerns arise in law enforcement. Agency Command Staff may wonder, “Can data capture the complexities of resilience?” or even feel uneasy about using personal data in wellness programs. These doubts are natural in the face of change.

But here’s the key—this isn’t about leaving tradition behind. It’s about building on this intuition and experience and complementing it with tools that give us better insights. A scout’s gut feeling still matters, just as years of leadership experience do in law enforcement. Data doesn’t replace intuition; it enhances it.

Further, just as sabermetrics wasn’t embraced overnight, transitioning to a data-driven wellness model takes time. It requires top-down support, open conversations, education, and the demonstration of tangible results—like improved sleep, reduced trauma symptoms, and stronger team morale.

Progress that Respects the Past

One of the most powerful lessons from sabermetrics is that progress and tradition can coexist. Baseball didn’t lose its heart when it embraced analytics; it became richer, more competitive, and more inclusive of strategies from all corners of the sport.

Likewise, modern officer wellness programs aren’t meant to replace the support systems leaders have relied on—they’re an evolution. By taking the best parts of what’s come before and marrying them with evidence-based practices, programs can address officers’ needs more comprehensively and faster.

The challenge lies in perspective. For those hesitant about change, it’s not about choosing between old and new ways of thinking—it’s about using both to move forward and make an even bigger impact.

A Call to Action

If sabermetrics teaches us anything, measuring the right things leads to unexpected wins. Whether on the field or in the field of law enforcement, data-driven innovation offers the opportunity to outperform old expectations.

Now is the time to explore new systems for officer wellness. Ask the right questions, measure what matters, and be open to learning. With the right metrics and tools, agencies can create change today and build a better future for the officers who protect and serve us all.

Are you ready to take the leap?

 

About the Author

Mark Pfetzer

Mark Pfetzer is a consultant and former law enforcement executive with over two decades of leadership and risk management experience. As founder of RMP Consulting LLC, he specializes in operational assessments, liability mitigation, and policy program management for law enforcement and detention facilities. His expertise lies in identifying vulnerabilities, implementing strategic solutions, and developing customized training programs that enhance safety, efficiency, and organizational effectiveness.

Mark retired is a Captain from the San Juan County Sheriff’s Office, where he led multiple divisions, and played a pivotal role in risk and liability management. He also served as the Police Administrative Manager for the Durango Police Department, where he ensured strategic alignment of administrative operations with the department’s mission.

Mark is a graduate of the FBI National Academy and holds a certification in risk management. He is an active member of the International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP) and has contributed to several professional organizations, including the New Mexico Sheriff’s Professional Standards Council and Leadership New Mexico. His extensive training and experience underpin his ability to develop data-driven strategies that balance operational capabilities with best practices.

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